The main cheerleaders of "Africa
Rising" are newspapers, aid agencies, investment banks,
Claiming that "Africa is the
growth continent for the 21st century," Director-General of the World
Trade Organisation (WTO), Pascal Lamy, on May 22, 2013, said that
"Africans today are more confident and hopeful in the future than ever
before." The World Economic Forum held its Africa Rising session on May 8,
2014. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) held its own Africa Rising
Conference on May 29, 2014. Africa rising is now something of an industry....
This Africa taking-off celebration
generally goes like this: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced two decades
of GDP growth rates of 7 percent or more; this has resulted in impressive
advances in economic performance; living standards have improved; and with
sharply increasing foreign investments, SSA is in the footsteps of Asia and
poised to do even better in the near term. This is Africa's turn to prosper.
The ambiguity of the term
"rising" is striking. Advancing to maturity, or merely approaching a
different level of development, or perhaps sitting on the runway, as in an
aircraft preparing for a take-off? And is the entire SSA sub-continent
comprising 47 countries with a population of 960 million rising in one go?
SSA is better assessed in a manner
that acknowedges its extreme unevenness, unique histories, and its considerable
challenges. These factors combine to show a more nuanced picture, thus shedding
light on how different parts of SSA might transform.
Perhaps no two countries tell the
complexities and differences in growth and development paths than SSA's oldest
states, Ghana and Nigeria, which, respectively attained independence 58 and 55
years ago.
The two have a shared history of
political instability that rendered consistent social and economic programs
nearly impossible. There were six violent removal of government of the day in
Ghana between 1966 and 1981. Nigeria experienced the same number of coup
d'etats between 1966 and 1993. That is how the two countries fell victim to
strife, corruption, and economic mismanagement well into 1990s when multi-party
politics ushered in democratic governance that steadily deepened.
The past two decades saw both Ghana
and Nigeria recording impressive GDP growth rates as celebrated in Africa
rising. Both achieved middle income status. Nigeria overtook South Africa as
the continent's largest economy. Its GDP of USD521 billion in 2013 towers over
the former number one at USD350 billion GDP.
But behind the GDP statistics, Ghana
and Nigeria tell a different story. Ghana's account features consolidation of
democratic governance, strengthening of institutions, and building economic
infrastructure that provides a foundation for long-term socioeconomic growth
and development. Crucially, between 1993 and 2012, political power has
peacefully changed hands four times, and between political parties twice,
indicating maturity and tolerance. This is a successful democratic transition,
an important ingredient in nation-building that still alludes nearly all SSA
states.
Ghana can therefore rightly claim to
be a model for political and economic reform in SSA. Good education is
addressing the task of building its people. Political stability and reforms
have resulted in stronger institutions. In December 2013, Ghana's second
largest hydroelectric generating plant at Bui with installed capacity of 400
megawatts was commissioned. The country is well on its way to becoming a major
power producer that overcomes chronic electricity outages that singularity
hinder development across SSA.
Nigeria remains a deeply troubled
giant, its economic achievements notwithstanding. After lurching from one
military ruler to another, Nigeria achieved a major political milestone in 2014
-- 15 years of uninterrupted democratic governance. But its challenges appear
to be multiplying. As Africa's largest oil producer and the world's fourth
leading exporter of liquidified natural in 2012, revenues from these sources
have not significantly improved lives. Boko Haram terror has worsened matters
by wrecking northern Nigeria.
Meanwhile corruption and economic
mismanagement continue to make global headlines. Last year Central Bank
governor Lamido Sanusi accused the state oil company, Nigerian National
Petroleum Company (NNPC), of failing to account for USD20 billion in oil
revenue. Sadly, the country's infrastructure barely serves even the minimal of
households and industries. The 2013 KPMG "Guide to Nigeria's Power Sector"
indicates that grid-connected generating plants in operation have "a total
installed capacity of 10,396.0 MW and available capacity of 6,056 MW."
This in a population of 167 million,
the overwhelming majority of whom depend on traditional biomass for cooking.
Ontario Power Generation operates plants that produce over19,000 megawatts of
electricity for a population of 13 million.
SSA does not have only one but many
stories. Countries such as Tanzania, Senegal, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya,
and Zambia are on a trajectory similar to Ghana's. They are making progress in
political and economic reforms at different paces. Former high performers, such
as Cote d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, that took a wrong political turn appear to be on
the rebound. In countries led by autocrats who have been in power between two
and three decades, such as Angola, Cameroon, Uganda, Sudan, Eritrea, and
Equatorial Guinea, systems of patronage supplant institutions. Other states
range from fragile, conflict-affected to failed states. Here we can include
Central African Republic, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo -
Somalia being extreme illustration of this category.
To reduce this complex picture into
Africa rising is not only in poor taste but unhelpful.
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